・ This English sentence was translated from the original Japanese text using Google's translation function.
This is the end of posting personal opinions. It will be a defense-related sentence.
It will be May 30th of this year. Ukrainian Nazarenko Andri in Japan wrote something like this on his own Twitter account.
https://twitter.com/nippon_ukuraina/status/1531095431199211520
『For those who are willing to concede their territory for a ceasefire.
Ukraine covers an area of 603,500 km², but is currently illegally occupied at 125,000 km². The area of Japan is 378,000 km².
I will attach a map of the prefectures, so if you are invaded, please tell me which one-third of the country you think you can send to the enemy army with the residents.』
At that time, I think it was a time when Toru Hashimoto relentlessly insisted that "Ukraine should stop resistance for peace."
Even if the inhumane acts of the Russian army and the criminal acts of war are revealed one after another, see the figure that consistently sticks to the theory that there is a fault on the Ukrainian side. As a Japanese, he feels totally disappointed.
Mr. Nazarenko's question is only aimed at those who seek concessions from the Ukrainian side. I thought that I needed to think seriously about this matter and give my own answer. So I thought, "If Russia invades one-third of the country, what kind of development can be considered? I will introduce the contents of.
First of all, for those who think that this case is a distant foreign event that has nothing to do with Japan. If you look at the world map, the country west of Russia is Ukraine. And the country next to the east will be Japan. From the Russian point of view, it is the same to send troops to either side. Of course, you also have the option of attacking Japan instead of Ukraine.
So does Russia have territorial ambitions for Japan? but. In the article of "President Online" on June 27, 2022, there is such a description.
『Russia's opposition, A Just Russia's leader Sergey Mironov, suggested territorial rights to Hokkaido in April, saying, "Any country can submit a territorial request to its neighbors if it so desires. Russia has the rights to Hokkaido." did. Putin said four years ago that he would recognize the Ainu as an indigenous people of Russia, and could call Hokkaido, where the Ainu live, a "unique territory."』
Considering what is currently going on in Ukraine. It seems better to judge that you have a clear ambition.
Russia's territory is Sakhalin and most of the Kuril Islands. Considering that the four northern islands are also effectively controlled and the base is being constructed, it is close to the tip of Hokkaido. The bases on the four northern islands may also be used as a depot for supplies.
Suppose that Russia did not invade Ukraine, and instead a large fleet of Russian Navy began to gather in the waters near Japan. Because the Russian territorial waters are approaching to the immediate vicinity of Hokkaido. As long as you are in Russian waters, you can't criticize it any more if it is claimed to be training. No matter how the fleet composition is for landing operations. With the Northern Territories issue as a shield, it seems that they will insist that they are "practicing recapture operations in case the remote islands of Russian territory are occupied."
And before the invasion of Ukraine, it was common knowledge in the world that "Russia cannot invade Japan, which has a security agreement with the United States." It is expected that the Japanese side would have watched the transition without strongly protesting, while being cautious.
Suddenly, Russia started a landing operation in Hokkaido without a declaration of war. The invasion will start at once.
The reason why the Russian army struggled at the beginning of the war. Since our army destroyed the radio tower that we were planning to use, the highly confidential military radio suddenly became unusable. There was a situation where there was no choice but to contact with a normal mobile phone that could be easily intercepted. And while Russians don't understand Ukrainian, many Ukrainians can understand Russian. It seems that these two factors are large.
However, it is too sweet to think that they will make the same mistake when they invade the Japanese side, so it is better not to assume that the Russian army will not be able to use military radio. And it seems that Japanese people basically don't understand Russian. We cannot expect that information on the contents of the operation will be leaked as easily as in Ukraine.
Furthermore, before the invasion of Ukraine, I thought that the signs for Hokkaido were also written in Russian. If the invasion started with it left, the Russian army would have a better advantage. The probability of successfully occupying the whole of Hokkaido by a surprise attack by blitzkrieg seems to be relatively high.
Will the next stage reach out to Honshu as well as Hokkaido? but. In Ukraine, even if I occupied the area where the pro-Russian faction lived, it did not stop there and headed for the capital Kyiv. Even in Japan, it is certain that they will come to Honshu. First, Aomori fell, and there are two invasion routes after that. The eastern and western sides of the backbone of the Japanese archipelago starting from the Ou Mountains. Where are you going? That is.
Originally. The Pacific route to the Kanto plain seems to be a scenario you want to avoid because the capital Tokyo may be at risk. Actually, for Japan, it will be easier for you to come to this side. Because in this case, the Self-Defense Forces and the US Army can allocate all their power to the battle with the Russian Army without worrying about the background.
What if we proceed to the Sea of Japan side route here? While the Self-Defense Forces and the US Army are fighting the Russian Army. We must always be on the lookout for China and North Korea behind us to join Russia on their side. If you strengthen the defense behind you, you will naturally lose the ability to fight Russia in front of you. And it seems that Russia has already done that kind of calculation in advance. I will assume that you are going to the Sea of Japan side route here.
The reason why Russia has been struggling since the middle of the battle. The land of Ukraine became covered with deep mud after the thaw. Not only the tires, but also the caterpillars of the tanks were sunk into the vehicles that made them unable to move. And the supply line became too long, and there were many situations where supplies did not reach the front line due to being pierced there.
Then, what about the case in Japan? Since Japan is an island country, the sea nearby will be the supply line no matter how much you march. Anyway on the Pacific side. On the Sea of Japan side, North Korea and China put silent pressure on us. The Russian Navy can continue to transport supplies to the front lines relatively safely. Japan, on the other hand, blocked the route by exploding the route that penetrates the mountains such as the Kanetsu tunnel. The mountains will serve as a natural barrier to prevent invasion of the Pacific Ocean.
Then, a defense line was set up around Fukui prefecture on the north side of Lake Biwa. The invasion to the west from there is somehow stopped. Since Russia has achieved a certain level of results, it will be in a stalemate in that area.
... At first glance without detailed calculations, does it feel like one-third of the Japanese archipelago has been occupied?
Now. If it occupies so far and then becomes effective control. What action will Russia take next? Consider.
Personally, I think the most likely thing is to build an attack missile launch facility. Deployed a large number of attack missiles that cover all major cities in the Japanese archipelago, SDF bases, and US military bases in Japan. And that warhead may also include tactical nuclear weapons.
On the US military side, the tactical nuclear weapons have already been abandoned. On the Russian side, it may still be there. Even if it doesn't remain. If you ask North Korea behind the scenes to "give a nuclear warhead and a missile that can launch it as a set," it is probably possible to obtain it.
First of all, how does North Korea move in the flow so far? I don't think that the people will participate in the war directly because of the poverty of the people and the desire to avoid turning the United States into an enemy in earnest. However, it may be possible to make a suggestive move and restrain the move so that the USFK cannot assist the USFK.
Next is China. First of all, I want Taiwan. I hear that if Russia's invasion of Ukraine was successful, it was also found that it was planning to attack Taiwan this fall. I don't think we'll miss the perfect opportunity for USFK and USFK to get stuck, so we'll be happy to occupy Taiwan.
Depending on the situation, it may come to the Senkaku Islands. It seems that it will stop there without coming to Okinawa. Because if you attack Okinawa and it causes physical and human damage to US military bases in Japan. It is perceived as a clear declaration of war on the United States.
What is important here. China really wants Okinawa too. Because of the existence of the US military base, it means that we have not touched it. When it comes to China. Perhaps you want to guide Japanese public opinion well so that the Japanese and the Japanese government can voluntarily negotiate with the US military and ask for the return of the US military base.
There have been movements that seem to be part of that. For example, Osprey. A configuration with two engines and two propellers is equivalent to a conventional transport helicopter, and it seems that there is not much difference in noise. As for safety, we have proved it with a good track record. Opponents continued to argue that the Osprey was dangerous without a clear rationale.
https://twitter.com/ssomurice_local/status/1550015323780554757
『"A picture-like left wing appears"
Nowadays, wise people wonder who is paying for these groups.』
Even when such an organization appears. I was still lightly thinking that some people were just making radical remarks.
However, immediately after the death of former Prime Minister Abe, so many people came to donate flowers and mourned their death. Within a month, the opposition to the state funeral began to outpace the pros. The criminal hasn't been charged yet. As early as, there are many calls for a reduction in sentence.
I was even more skeptical when I heard a voice reviewing and evaluating former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. It's a matter of course. When I listened carefully, it seemed that everything was attributed to former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga from the point of securing the vaccine.
In fact, it was former Prime Minister Abe who secured the vaccines for Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca for the entire population. Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga should have taken over after that. Former Prime Minister Abe's achievements have been erased before he knew it. Acquittals are ignored in cases such as Morikake. The Akagi file was used as evidence of suspicion, despite the fact that Mr. and Mrs. Abe were not involved. Regarding matters such as the Unification Church, he was told as if he had been cohesive. It is tailored as if all beings were evil.
So, let's think about it here. Which country will benefit from such a drop in Abe's reputation? That is.
Once upon a time, the era of the former Democratic Party of Japan. US-Japan relations have deteriorated significantly. After all, I tried to unilaterally overturn what was agreed between the nations. Unsurprisingly, it severely undermined the trust of the United States.
Moreover, failures continue in domestic politics. The exchange rate rushed to the 70 yen level per dollar. The Nikkei Stock Average has fallen to the 8,000 yen level. Export-related companies were severely damaged, and domestic production was not profitable, so companies moved their factories overseas one after another. At that time, China was a strong candidate for relocation for many companies.
Both military and economic. For China, laughter wouldn't stop. However, it was former Prime Minister Abe who changed that situation completely.
First of all, about the relationship with the United States. He established good relations with former President Obama at that time and the next former President Trump, and repaired the damaged US-Japan relations.
The Nikkei Stock Average has recovered to the 20,000 yen level. The exchange rate has also been corrected to the normal range.
The media claims that it has increased non-regular employment and widened the gap. In reality, the disparity has not widened. "People who really want to get a regular job but are in non-regular employment because they don't have a job" have also decreased by more than 1 million.
Furthermore, with the long-term administration, the international status of the title of "Prime Minister of Japan" will rise. Until then, it was treated as "the Japanese prime minister will change soon, so it doesn't make much sense to talk." Having been the prime minister for a long time. In addition, former Prime Minister Abe has been praised by the international community for gaining the support of the people to make it possible. Along with that, the status of Japan itself will rise.
In the days of former President Trump, the TPP, which also has the aspect of a Chinese siege network, took shape. Immediately before that, there was a crisis that the United States, which was the original ally, would leave. It is also the credit of former Prime Minister Abe to prevent aerial decomposition and succeed in maintaining the TPP.
When I try to enumerate in this way. You can imagine how inconvenient former Prime Minister Abe was to China.
Former Prime Minister Abe's state funeral is now dominated by opponents. Probably it will be done as decided by the government. Leaders from many countries will come to Japan to participate in the ceremony.
These people justified the achievements of former Prime Minister Abe in world politics. Those who came to Japan in memory of his death. Then come to Japan. There are only voices criticizing former Prime Minister Abe among the Japanese people. How would people who come to Japan feel such a scene? The higher the personal evaluation of former Prime Minister Abe. The stronger the feeling of mourning his death, the lower the reputation of Japan and the Japanese people. And the evaluations from the leaders of each country will drop all at once. That could directly lead to a decline in Japan's international status.
Aiming for that, China tried to guide Japanese public opinion. And wasn't it a great success? I personally think.
https://mobile.twitter.com/morpheus7701/status/1553445934843174912
『A division of the PLA's Medium Range Air Defense System HQ-22 was witnessed in Fujian Province, China, adjacent to Taiwan.
In addition, PHL-16 MLRS is deployed only 180km from Taiwan.
It seems that the invasion of Taiwan is quite imminent. It's just a matter of time.
Taiwan is about to reach its climax on the eve of WW3 🐸』
It's July 31st. There was a note that China appears to be gathering troops in Fujian, which is the closest to Taiwan.
If this was for the purpose of aggression, as it was in Ukraine. There are two possible reasons why China has begun to move.
One is that Russia uses natural gas as a weapon. That is why I understood that the method of shaking Western countries was unexpectedly effective. What are the resources that China is proud of? Of course, it is a rare earth necessary for manufacturing electric vehicles.
If Russia and China are in step with each other. If Russia declares that it will not export natural gas, crude oil, etc., and China will not export rare earths to Western countries. It is expected to be quite effective.
And second, if China guides public opinion in Japan and decides that it has succeeded. Even if China invades Taiwan here, the heightened anti-Chinese sentiment in Japan can be suppressed within an acceptable range. Hopefully, the U.S. Forces Japan will not be able to move in response to the Taiwan Crisis. It is possible that the U.S. Forces Japan has raised public opinion against the use of bases in Japan to help Taiwan and thought it would be exciting.
If so. If China succeeds in invading Taiwan, it is certain that the Senkaku Islands and Okinawa will be the next targets. For that reason, isn't it trying to raise public opinion against the base, especially in Okinawa? Is expected.
These are just my personal guesses and expectations. Maybe it's just too much thought. At least, it is something that cannot happen under the common sense of the world before the Ukrainian crisis.
But Russia's invasion of Ukraine has changed all the conventional wisdom. Now it's a situation where anything can happen.
All my worries are melancholy. I sincerely hope that writing this sentence will be just a fuss.